The Pacer

Issue date: 2/20/07 Section: Campus News

West Tennessee residents have always been concerned about severe weather, especially tornadoes. However, another natural disaster could easily occur here - earthquakes.

Martin is fewer than 50 miles from one of the United States' most active fault lines-the New Madrid fault. And while small quakes have occasionally occurred along the New Madrid in the past 200 years, its potential for wreaking havoc on West Tennessee is great.

Dr. Steve Horton, a research scientist with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), visited Obion County Tuesday, Feb. 13, to discuss the dangers residents could face in the event of a massive earthquake and how to better prepare themselves for such an event.

Horton said the New Madrid fault line is different from other fault lines, such as the San Andreas in California. He said the New Madrid fault line produces earthquakes much less frequently and the quakes that have occurred since the early 1800s typically have caused no substantial damage. Horton added that a quake must register at least a magnitude 2.3 on the Richter scale for it to be felt.

Horton said through scientific evidence, the New Madrid fault also is on a slower timetable than its Western counterparts, with a massive earthquake occurring about every 500 years.

The scientific evidence consists of a variety of sand blows. When a large earthquake occurs, aged material, including plant remains and American Indian artifacts, erupts from deep inside the earth. Because of these sand blows, scientists have estimated that large earthquakes (magnitude 7 or greater) occurred at least once on the New Madrid between A.D. 800 and 1000, at least once between A.D. 1300 and 1600 and three times in December 1811 through January 1812.
So if the last "big ones" occurred in 1811-1812, you may think you are safe for another 305 years, right?

While this might be the case, Horton said it is extremely important for every individual living near the New Madrid fault line to be prepared for a large earthquake now because scientists cannot predict when the next big quake will occur.

"There are no guarantees that an earthquake will happen in this pattern," Horton said. "It's random."

Horton said a 7 to 10 percent chance exists that an earthquake of a 7.5 to 8.0 magnitude could occur within the next 50 years, and a 25-40 percent chance exists that an earthquake of a 6.0 or greater magnitude could occur.

"We really don't know why earthquakes happen," said Horton. "It's best to be prepared for it [a large earthquake]."

Continued...

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